The Reverend's Logic: Mankind, Machines, and the Future of Our Decisions

The bequest of a set of notebooks, written 250 years ago by the Reverend Thomas Bayes set in motion a chain of events that would transform the world and lead to the method for calculating human decision making. The implications are staggering. Many corporations possess vast quantities of data on customers—obtained through techniques such as "cookies" and loyalty cards—without their knowledge. Taking all this information, and employing Bayesian theory, allows specific targeting, and influencing, of customers. On the Web, search engines can now predict what we are looking for. The implications for technology are only the beginning. Bayes strikes at the heart of how we make decisions. From evidence in court to the interpretation of medical tests, Bayesian theory is creeping into all our decisions. There are already warnings from those who fear the infiltration will result in technology directing our lives and our future. While some counter that Bayesianism will empower individuals and make technology more human-centered. The Reverend's Logic reveals one of the most important aspects of twenty-first century society—how much of our decision making is being replicated and influenced by computers. At the same time we are being forced to address fundamental questions about how we think. Dunbar explains in non-technical terms how Bayes is already shaping our lives, how it works and traces where it came from—to Bayes himself and the origin of our future.